ALM UNDP

Summary:

The Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Fisheries (MPAM) and the World Bank (WB), in collaboration with the National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the National Meteorology Authority (DMN) together undertook an original exploratory study to quantify the impact of climate change on Moroccan agriculture by the end of the 21st century. The objective of MPAM and WB is to determine the economic and political options for adapting Moroccan agriculture vis-à-vis climate change so that Morocco is not caught unawares by possible crisis situations. This study is operationally organized in 5 phases:

1) future climate projections at the level of Morocco;

2) impact on agricultural yields;

3) impact on water resources;

4) economic impact and

5) public policy options for adapting to climate change.

The impact of climate change on agricultural yields constitutes the second phase of the "World Bank - Kingdom of Morocco: Adaptation to climate change in the agriculture sector". It builds on climate change scenario data developed by Wilby (2008) and provides one of the bases upon which "Impacts on Farming Systems" and "Economic impact assessments", will be based, leading eventually to "Policy adaptation options". The results presented in this report are purely descriptive in the sense that they do not endeavour to propose solutions, at this stage of the study, for adapting to climate change. The present document is an interim report on climate change impacts on crop yields in Morocco and it is part of a larger study led by the World Bank and the Government of Morocco on climate change and agriculture. The yield component was coordinated by FAO with INRA and DMN as the main national partners. The comprehensive final report is under preparation by the World Bank.