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Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa
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Project details
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Leading Organization:
International Development Research Centre (IDRC)Implementing Agency:
ESAROImplementing Agency and Partnering Organizations:
Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), Ministry of Health (Uganda), National Institute for Medical Research (Tanzania), Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Application Centre, International Centre for Insect Physiology and Ecology, Community Health Support, Walter Reed Army Institute for Research (U.S.)Summary:
In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence increased by 146%, 256% and 300%, respectively, during the 1997/1998 epidemic. About 80% of statistical variation in malaria incidence can be explained by rainfall and temperature. Current methods of detection do not provide sufficient lead-time to introduce effective intervention. In 2001, however, a malaria epidemic prediction model was developed by the Kenya Medical Research Institute that uses climatic factors to detect an epidemic 2-4 months before its occurrence, allowing sufficient time for intervention. The model has been tested and validated in parts of Kenya and Tanzania. This project will fine-tune the model, incorporate site-specific factors and transfer it to end users in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, and eventually other countries in East Africa. It will enhance the capacity of policymakers and health officials to provide early warning and intervene in an effective manner, and the capacity of local populations to respond appropriately. Considering that climate is not the only factor driving malaria, researchers will assess the role of non-biophysical factors in determining the incidence and control of the disease.
Project Components:
In 2001, a malaria epidemic prediction model was developed by KEMRI that uses climatic factors to detect an epidemic 2-4 months before its occurrence, allowing sufficient time for intervention. The model has been tested and validated in parts of Kenya and Tanzania. This project will fine-tune the model, incorporate site-specific factors, and transfer it to end users in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, and eventually other countries in East Africa. It will accomplish this by:
- Taking into consideration the local terrain and the immune profile of the affected population, including mapping traditionally endemic areas where people have some level of resistance, and newly malarial zones where there is less resistance to malaria.
- Enhancing the capacity of policymakers and health officials to provide early warning for malaria outbreaks and intervene in an effective manner.
- Assessing the role of nonbiophysical factors in determining the incidence and control of the disease.
- Training district health care providers across the three countries to use the prediction model to anticipate and prepare for malaria outbreaks.
Expected Outputs:
If successful, the project will give local health systems a greater base of certainty on which to plan prevention and treatment. With more lead time, health officials can respond by taking preventive measures such as distributing mosquito nets, and draining or spraying mosquito breeding grounds. They also can have adequate staff and medical supplies on standby to deal with increased caseloads.
Contacts:
Contact: Project leader Dr. Andrew Githeko, KEMRI
Email: AGitheko@kisian.mimcom.net
Website: www.kemri.orgProject Status:
Under implementationPrimary Beneficiaries:
National health ministries, Local health planning authorities, Highland communitiesResources:
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