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Summary:

Tanzania is located just south of the equator on the coast of East Africa, sharing borders with Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Uganda and Zambia. Like many other countries in the region, around 80 per cent of Tanzania’s population is dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, income and employment. The sector accounts for around 56 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GOT, 2007). The majority of Tanzania’s population is concentrated along the coast, in the northern and southern highlands where the land is particularly fertile, and along the edge of Lake Victoria (USDS, 2010).

The United Republic of Tanzania is one of the countries that are continuing to suffer from the impacts of climate change and related hazards such as floods and droughts, which have substantially affected economic performance and undermined poverty reduction efforts. Two of the 14 selected projects activities are: 

  • Water efficiency in crop production irrigation to boost production and conserve water in all areas.
  • Alternative farming systems and water harvesting.

The adverse impacts of Climate Change are already having their toll in the livelihoods of people and in the sectors of the economy in the country. Frequent and severe droughts in many parts of the country are being felt with their associated consequences on food production and water scarcity among others. The recent severe droughts which hit most parts of the country leading to severe food shortages, food insecurity, water scarcity, hunger and acute shortage of power signify the vulnerability of the country to impacts of climate change. The extreme drop of water levels of Lake Victoria, Lake Tanganyika and Lake Jipe in recent years and the dramatic recession of 7km of Lake Rukwa in about 50 years, are associated, at least in part, with climate change, and are threatening economic and social activities. Eighty per cent of the glacier on Mount Kilimanjaro has been lost since 1912 and it is projected that the entire glacier will be gone by 2025. The intrusion of sea water into water wells along the coast of Bagamoyo town and the inundation of Maziwe Island in Pangani District, off the Indian Ocean shores, are yet another evidence of the threats of climate change. The following section is found in the Meister Consultants Group study: *Floating Houses and Mosquito Nets: Emerging Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Around the World*.

Strategy and Actors As one of the Least Developed Countries (LCD), Tanzania is obligated by the UNFCCC to develop a National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). In 2007, Tanzania fulfilled this obligation.170 The NAPA is the main strategic document of the Tanzanian adaptation policy. The environmental department of the vice-president is responsible for the development of NAPA; however, many other actors are also involved. The research team is interdisciplinary, and the data on vulnerability and adaptation measures was collected collaboratively. Stakeholders from academia, government, the private sector, and the local level were involved in the development of the NAPA. An important goal of involving stakeholders was to foster the collection of information and climate data, because, as with many other developing countries, the current data base on expected climate impacts is very limited. Therefore, planning processes and specific adaptation measures are often based on local knowledge and those climate impacts that can already be observed. The drawback to this approach is that it does not allow for any long-term planning. Hence, the primary goal of NAPA is to identify the most urgent measures. In total, 72 projects have been analyzed, 14 of which were selected to begin the implementation phase. Most of the projects in Tanzania concern agriculture and water resource management (irrigation, water saving, rainwater collection); however, energy and tourism also play an important role. The implementation of the most urgent projects has just started (see project case studies in the appendix). NAPA adaptation projects are focused at the technical level;they include, for example, irrigation and water storage infrastructure plans, and electrification measures using micro-hydropower. Further priorities are the sustainable use of scarce natural resources and the development of drought-resistant seeds. The implementation of the identified projects is not centralized; rather, it is distributed among the responsible ministries. Many adaptation projects are funded by international organizations like the United Nations Development Programme and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

ADAPTATION NEEDS AND PRIORITIES:

Tanzania’s current climate is tropical with regional variation reflective of its varied topography (McSweeney, 2009). The north and east of the country experience two wet seasons, with short rains last from October to December and long rains from March to May. The south, west, and central areas of the country experience one contiguous wet season from October until April or May (McSweeney, 2009). As in many other countries in the region, these rainfall patterns are largely determined by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.

Tanzania’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) notes that the country is already experiencing the effects of climate change, including frequent and severe droughts leading to serious food shortages; the country has experienced six major droughts over the past thirty years (AF, 2011; GOT, 2007). Coastal zones are particularly vulnerable to existing climate threats as well, putting natural ecosystems, infrastructure and agriculture in danger (AF, 2011). There is evidence that mean annual temperatures have increased by 1°C since the 1960s, experiencing relatively small increases in hot days and much larger increases in the frequency of hot nights during the same period (McSweeney, 2009). Observations of precipitation patterns also reveal statistically significant decreasing trends (McSweeney, 2009).

As to the future impacts of climate change, models predict that temperatures could increase by 1 to 2.7°C by the 2060s, and 1.5 to 4.5°C by the 2090s, with certain parts of the country experiencing increases in rainfall and others experiencing decreases along with an increase in the proportion or rain that falls in heavy events (GOT, 2007; McSweeney, 2009). Given that the majority of Tanzania’s population depends on natural resources for their livelihoods, the country is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, with vulnerability compounded by poverty, population density, and environmental degradation (AF, 2011). As highlighted in a policy brief published by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), should Tanzania fail to address the impacts of climate change in the agriculture sector, the nation’s GDP could decline by 0.6 to 1 per cent in 2030; the effects of climate change post-2030 on Tanzania are predicted to be extreme (IIED, 2009).

Tanzania’s NAPA undertakes an assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation options by socioeconomic sector, and identifies a number of adaptation options for each, as summarized below (GOT, 2007):

  • Agriculture sector: Impacts include unpredictable rainfall, shifting agro-ecological zones, increased dry periods, and decreases in maize yields due to temperature rise. Adaptation options in the agriculture sector include alternative farming systems, use of indigenous knowledge, increased irrigation, crop switching, shifting crops to better-suited agro-ecological zones, and utilizing climate and weather data to guide farming practices.
  • Livestock sector: Rising temperatures and increased precipitation could cause changes in plant species distribution, and livestock deaths during heat waves. Adaptation options include altering land use patterns, tsetse fly control, pest and disease control measures, research and development, and confining the movement of livestock.
  • Forestry sector: Impacts of climate change on forestry could include deforestation and desertification, more frequent forest fires, the disappearance of medicinal plans, reduced seed dispersal, and a decline in employment and foreign exchange earnings. Adaptation options include promotion of different sources of energy, encouragement of forest regeneration, instituting participatory forest management, creation of community forest fire prevention plans, and afforestation programs.
  • Water sector: Impacts in the water sector are expected to include decreased and/or increased runoff in river basins, water pollution, and disturbances of stream ecosystems. Adaptation measures include improved water resources management, creation of water reservoirs, and the development of water recycling and reuse facilities.
  • Coastal and marine resources: Impacts of anticipated sea level rise include land losses, coastal erosion and damage to coastal infrastructure, and loss of coastal and marine habitats. Adaptation options in this sector include raising awareness of the impacts of climate change; relocation of services and existing coastal infrastructure; and establishment of protected areas.
  • Health sector: Impacts could include higher incidences of malaria, emergence of malaria in high altitude areas, and severe shortages of food and increases in malnutrition rates. Adaptation options include: strengthening malaria control programs; improving community awareness programs; development of early warning systems; and ensuring the availability of trained health staff.
  • Wildlife sector: Possible impacts of climate change include shrinking wildlife habitat and the disappearance of wildlife corridors. Adaptation options could include combatting illegal hunting and forest fires, establishing wildlife information databases, and enhancing capacity building on wildlife management for sustainable development.
  • Industry sector: Variable rainfall and increased drought could lead to shortage of raw materials, power supply, and water supply. Adaptation measures could include the promotion of efficiency energy saving technologies, promotion of industrial self-energy production, and cleaner production technologies.
  • Energy sector: Impacts on the energy sector could include vulnerability of biomass and hydro power given declines in precipitation and increased evaporation. Adaptation options include investing in alternative energy sources, development of community-based mini-hydropower, and supporting programs to develop alternative sources of energy.
  • Human settlement sector: Impacts include coastal erosion and loss of settlements in coastal areas, loss of infrastructure, and migration of people and livestock to other areas. Adaptation options include relocation of vulnerable communities to other areas, establishment of good land tenure systems, awareness raising activities, and the establishment of disaster planning entities at the village level.
  • Tourism sector: Impacts on the tourism sector include shift in preferences from important tourist destinations (Serengeti) to less important areas, coral bleaching, reduced marine biodiversity, and submerging of small islands (Zanzibar, Maria, Kilwa) which are important tourist destinations. Adaptation options include the relocation of people living in wildlife corridors, development of buffer zones around national parks, and the establishment of alternative sources of income for communities in the tourist area.
  • Land use sector: Impacts include soil erosion, degradation of soil structure, declining soil fertility, variability of rainfall, floods and drought affecting land management. Adaptation measures include encouraging terracing and contour farming, use of organic manure, zero grazing, and specific land uses allocated for various development and informal sectors.

With these vulnerabilities in mind, Tanzania’s NAPA identifies a number of priority adaptation projects, as summarized in Table 3.

NATIONAL LEVEL POLICIES:

Tanzania released its Initial National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in July 2003, and its NAPA in January 2007. Over and above these efforts, it does not appear to have initiated the development of a dedicated climate change (adaptation) plan. Nor does it appear to have integrated climate change considerations into its national development planning documents in a meaningful way.

CURRENT ADAPTATION ACTION:

Relative to other East African countries, a very high number of adaptation projects are currently being implemented in Tanzania. The majority of these projects are focused on research, capacity building, policy formation, and community-based adaptation activities. Fewer projects are focused on vulnerability assessment, awareness raising, and field implementation activities. By socioeconomic representation, the most common ongoing adaptation projects in Tanzania are focused in the areas of agriculture, freshwater and building the capacity of government to facilitate adaptation to climate change; significantly fewer are focused on coastal zones, disaster risk management, energy, urban areas, human health and climate information services. None of the projects active in Tanzania specifically address forestry and biodiversity concerns (although priorities for the government) and the implications of climate change by gender.
Funding and implementation of these projects is primarily from a diverse array of international organizations and government, including but not limited to the Adaptation Fund, the European Commission, the Rockefeller Foundation, the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) and the governments of Denmark, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Prominent regional programs in the country include the Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA) program funded by the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Denmark’s “Climate Change Adaptation and Development Initiative” (CC-DARE) program, as well as the Japan funded Africa Adaptation Program. These latter two programs are both focused on integrating adaptation policy into national development planning processes.

PROPOSED ADAPTATION ACTION:

Five priority adaptation projects were identified by Tanzania through its NAPA. It appears that several ongoing projects address some of the key vulnerable areas discussed in the NAPA. This includes, for example, the Adaptation Fund supported project “Implementation of Concrete Adaptation Measures to Reduce Vulnerability of Livelihood and Economy of Coastal and Lakeshore Communities in Tanzania.” More of these NAPA priorities are expected to be addressed should Tanzania receive funding from the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) for the project “Developing Core Capacity to Address Adaptation to Climate Change in Tanzania in Productive Coastal Zones.”

ASSESSMENT:

Overall, current project activities in Tanzania touch upon some of the adaptation priorities identified in the NAPA, in particular on the need for adaptation in the agriculture and freshwater sectors. There is some evidence that current project activities reinforce the objectives of some of the priority projects listed in the NAPA and priority adaptation actions more broadly. It is also possible that Tanzania’s NAPA may have overlooked some key adaptation priorities; for example it does not mention the importance of integrating climate change adaptation into national/sectoral development plans or the importance of improving climate data and meteorological information–two areas that are represented in current project activities but are not explicitly mentioned as priorities in the NAPA.
Tanzania’s current adaptation action is quite diversified across a range of sectors. Key gaps include investment in the development of community forest fire prevention plans, strengthening community awareness on preventable major health hazards, implementing sustainable tourism activities, enhancing wildlife extension services and assistance to rural communities in managing wildlife resources, establishment of good land tenure systems, participatory reforestation, community-based mini-hydro, and improving understanding of the differential impacts of climate change on men and women.

A certain degree of coordination on climate change is occurring through the “Forum CC,” Tanzania’s civil society forum on climate change. A recent assessment by the group indicates that there may be over 100 initiatives related to both climate change adaptation and mitigation in Tanzania (Hepworth, 2010). However, there is a greater need to ensure that adaptation actions are coordinated; a recent study prepared by the Heinrich Boll Foundation suggests that Tanzania is not well prepared to adapt to climate change, citing inadequate policy and planning, and a need to better coordinate government and non-government initiatives (Hepworth, 2010). This report makes a number of recommendations for future climate change activities in the country, including the following:

  • A National Climate Change Policy and Strategy should be established by Tanzania, including mention of current and future sectoral initiatives;
  • The creation of a national vulnerability assessment which identifies the geographical, sectoral and demographic priorities for support;
  • Strengthened and coordinated leadership on climate change within the Tanzanian government;
  • National or regional research, oversight, and advocacy facility with a mandate to advance the interpretation and integration of climate science and scenarios; and
  • More meaningful engagement of the private sector.

 

Primary Source: Hove, Hilary; Echeverría, Daniella; Parry, Jo-Ellen. (2011) “Review of Current and Planned Adaptation Action: East Africa.” Adaptation Partnership / International Institute for Sustainable Development.

Additional References:

 

Featured Content:
Floating Houses and Mosquito Nets: Emerging Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Around the World
Review of Existing and Planned Adaptation Action
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CCA - Common Country Assessment
UNDAF - UN Development Assistance Framework
RPD/RCF Regional Programme Document/Regional Cooperation Framework
Poverty Reduction Strategy
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