ALM UNDP

Summary:

A methodology will be developed that combines strong ground- and remote sensing based data layers including climate data and socio-economic attributes to assess risk-levels of climate change (CC) potential vulnerabilities and their consequences at local and sub-regional scales for time horizons extending the next 10-15 years. Results will provide detailed adapted analysis into local to regional CC and important metrics required as input for mapping vulnerability and risk based on changes in surface energy, carbon and water balances in large regions of Southern Morocco.

Climate change presents a major challenge for sustainable management of key ecosystem goods and services (e.g. biodiversity, forestry, agricultural production, water resources- both quantity and quality). Despite increasing efforts to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, results from global circulation models show that major changes in the current climate cannot be avoided and hence sector-specific adaptation measures are needed. These adaptation measures have to be based on the understanding of

(i) the likelihood of change,

(ii) vulnerability of the specific sectors to the predicted change, and

(iii) knowledge about the local-scale possibilities for mitigation or otherwise adaptation.

There is thus the need for developing the methodology and tools for connecting the global and regional scale climate change to sub-regional and local scale changes where realistic and achievable mitigation or adaptation measures are planned and implemented. Authorities and stakeholders acting at these different scales need the necessary information, provided in a suitable format, for understanding and planning adaptation measures. The project is based on data from intensively studied sites/sub-regions of the Biosphere Reserve of southeastern Moroccan Oases (ReBOSuM). The Basin represents mountainous regions of the High Atlas in the north and the Anti-Atlas in the west, alluvial plains and depressions as well as stony deserts (Hamadas). ReBOSuM plays a critical role in buffering the advance of the Saharan desert. It represents a wide range of bioclimatic areas, from the humid Mediterranean area to the hyper-arid Sahara. The area experiences high interannual variability of the scarce rainfall distribution and are most vulnerable to climatic changes. Consequences of climate change are expected to be of major importance for livestock, fruit and other agricultural productions and tourism in the High Atlas and sub-Saharan regions. In this context, increased rainfall variability for the region south of the High Atlas, associated with climate variability and change, implies increased vulnerability. This is likewise true for changes in land use, agriculture and other natural climate forcings that affect and respond to the water resources. These forcings are often amplified by an increase in population count or density for the same or decreasing water supply. Biodiversity is rich in the area, protected from desertification and sand invasion by an effective system of oases with a rich agro-diversity including date-palms. These fragile agro-ecosystems are the backbone of the economy for the inhabitants of the oases which have settled here for more than a thousand years. In the southern part of the basin, the Tafilalt-Oasis, irregular water supply through khettaras (subterranean horizontal channels draining perched water tables), “lachées” from the Hassan Dakhil dam, together with sinking groundwater tables and an increased salinity endanger livelihood security and sustainability. Climate simulations from the IPCC project an increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation over the entire Mediterranean region (IPCC, 2007); and unless near-term adapted and achievable measures are implemented at sub-regional and local levels, it is unlikely that livelihood can be sustained in a changing climate. The sites have a wealth of existing information, and are closely integrated into the local- economy and trade. This provides the necessary link to the local scale where appropriate adaptation measures can be assessed and developed. The project will thus provide both detailed descriptions about the methodology and tools for making climate impacts and adaptation assessments, as well as a suite of realistic adaptation measures for key ecosystem goods and services. This methodology and information can be used by stakeholders from local to sub-regional scales and can be extended to regional and country-level scale. The project will also contribute directly to the development of existing or planned national and international policies and provided inputs to facilitate the decision making process.