ALM UNDP

Summary:

##### Description

To address and reduce the additional stresses and associated costs posed by climate change to the Pakistani agricultural production system.

##### Background

Agriculture is still the mainstay of Pakistan’s economy. It accounts for 23 percent of GDP,
employs 43 percent of the labor force, and contributes 60 percent of export earnings. Arable crops provide 65
percent of agricultural GDP, livestock 31 percent, and fishing and forestry 4 percent. Irrigated land produces 90
percent of total farm output. Over 65 percent of the population lives in the rural areas. There are over 4 million
family farms, with an average farm size of 4.7 ha. Today 50 percent of farmers are owner operators, and 26
percent are pure tenants; however, the size of the landless (wage labor) class is not accurately known. Irrigation
water is critical for agriculture in most of the country. Nearly 80 percent of the cropped area is irrigated, and
agriculture is by far the largest user of water, consuming on average about 95 percent of Pakistan’s available
water resources. Despite the large area of irrigation, the sector is still quite vulnerable to climatic factors and
pest attacks.

The government’s agricultural policy is aimed at enhancing farm profitability and competitiveness through
realizing the existing productivity potential of crop and livestock production. Key challenges pertinent to the
agriculture sector include:
(i) stagnating yields,
(ii) wide yield gaps between progressive farmers and average
farmers,
(iii) inadequate supply and inefficient use of available water,
(iv) poor quality and inadequate
availability of inputs,
(v) inefficient research and extension services,
(vi) poor rural infrastructure,
(vii) frequent insect and pest attacks,
(viii) high incidence of crop and livestock diseases,
(ix) lack of capital and financial
resources, and
(x) lack of international competitiveness of some agricultural commodities like fruits, vegetables
and flowers in particular grown by farmers.

##### Problem

Climate change is increasing production risks in many farming systems and
reducing the ability of farmers and rural communities to manage these risks on their own. Agriculture is vital
for current and future food security. As noted in the Initial National Communication (INC) of Pakistan to the
UNFCCC, agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change, especially rainfed agriculture. This may
represent a serious threat to the achievement of rural development objectives in the country. According to the
IPCC AR4, Pakistan is experiencing decreasing trends in annual precipitation. Water scarcity is already a big
problem in Pakistan. Increasing temperatures coupled with changes in rainfall patterns are increasing the
vulnerability of crops and consequently decreasing their productivity potential, particularly in rainfed
agricultural production areas. Water resources are particularly sensitive to climatic changes. Droughts in 1999
and 2000 have caused sharp declines in water tables and dried up wetlands, severely degrading ecosystems.
Increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall are expected to increase the net irrigation water requirements of
crops, forcing farmers to make changes in the existing cropping patterns. Climatic changes in Pakistan would
likely exacerbate current environmental problems, increasing land degradation and shortfalls in food
production, and would determine other socio-economic problems such as increased rural poverty and migration.
These problems will affect both irrigated agriculture and rainfed agriculture, resulting more aggravated in arid
and semi-arid areas.

##### Solution

The proposed adaptation alternative has the objective of addressing and reducing the
additional stresses and associated costs posed by climate change to the Pakistani agricultural production system.
Particular attention is given to water resources, as a critical factor to sustain agricultural production in a context
of increased climate variability.