ALM UNDP

Summary:

The project objective is to develop and implement integrated disaster risk management strategies to address climate change -induced fire hazards and risks

According to South Africa’s Initial National Communication (INC, 2003) , Fire Hazards are a significant constraint to economic development in the Western Cape region and adjacent areas in the Eastern Cape and Free State Provinces. The INC suggests that, with a predicted 1-3°C increase in long-term average temperature as well as a likely 5-10% reduction in rainfall and an increased frequency of drought, conditions favoring wildfires will significantly increase.

Expectations are that a number of climate driven factors will result in approximately a three-fold increase in the likelihood of fire occurrences in affected areas. For one, increased local climate variability and weather extremes are likely to be characterized by decreased intensity of rainfall and moisture in the dry periods. Secondly, the predicted increases in surface air temperatures which will increase rates of evapotranspiration and desiccate the fuel load. Thirdly, increased spatial and temporal variability in wind patterns with increased hot and dry interior winds are likely. Finally, it is also likely that increased carbon uptake in vegetation will increase the quantity of combustible biomass. Together, these drivers will influence the number of days where the risks of fire (as measured by the Fire Danger Index) are high.

The National Communication predicts that fire intensities are to increase by about 20% due to the increase in grass fuel load. Without adaptation, climate change-induced wildfires will led to severe economic impacts on development as the incidence of fire hazards increase beyond current coping capacities. The Western Cape Province and Western Parts of the Eastern Cape and Free State Provinces is identified as the most vulnerable region in the country with respect to disaster risks from wildfire due to patterns of urbanisation, agriculture and potential impacts upon water catchment areas.

The barriers to effecting the needed paradigm shift in fire management include absence of an updated legislative framework, inadequate institutional capacities, as-yet undeveloped fire and fuel models, and imperfect firefighting infrastructure. The project will seek to lift these barriers so as to counter the increased probability of fires from climate change. This will entail institutional strengthening, capacity building, and awareness raising, under a programmatic approach to climate change sensitive fire management. The adaptation strategy around integrated fire management will be implemented in selected pilot areas identified to be at particularly high risk due to climate change.

This project will compliment the government’s present initiatives to tackle the wildfire problem through improving fire fighting infrastructure. The project will in particular address long term adaptation to climate change needs in the context of forecasting and early warning systems, and strengthening and establishing national and regional centers and information networks for rapid response to extreme weather related events. Improved fire management will have important adaptation benefits. Vulnerable sectors that experience additional fire hazards under conditions of climate change will be less likely to suffer economic losses. The strengthening of the insurance industry will have an additional positive effect on reducing the burden of risks faced by poorer communities. These will safeguard the long-term development of the region against increasing fire risk in the face of climate change. The project will be a model for encouraging fundamental changes in how society manages land as climate change unfolds. Based on scientific assessments of current vulnerability, past assessments and future risk assessments, the project will promote innovation (e.g. partnership with insurance industry) and embrace a modular approach that is easily replicable in other regions.

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