ALM UNDP

Summary:

##### Description

To develop and demonstrate the systematic diagnosis of climate-related problems and the design and implementation of cost-effective adaptation measures in agriculture and natural resources management. In addition, the project would aim to integrate climate risk awareness and responsiveness into economic and operational planning.

##### Background

The Philippines is widely known as one of the countries that is most exposed to natural hazards, including typhoons, floods, landslides, droughts, volcanoes, earthquakes and tsunamis. Over the past decades, these hazards have on average resulted in financial losses of around USD$300 million and claimed about 850 lives per year (WB/NDCC, 2004). A new risk is now exacerbating the challenges facing the Philippines: global climate change. Analyses of meteorological and sea level data for the Philippines over the past century roughly match the global trends. Since around 1970, the average temperature has risen by more than half a degree, and there has been a significant increase in the number of hot days and nights, as well as a decrease in the number of cold nights and cold days. On the average, the country has also become dryer, and in some areas there has been a significant decrease in the number of rain days [Manton et al., 2001]. Sea levels have also been rising, probably partly also due to local subsidence (particularly in the Manila area) and partly due to global sea level rise [Hulme and Sheard, 1999]. Temperature rise in the Philippines during the coming decades is projected to be similar to the global average, i.e. several degrees by 2100. In addition, the Philippines will face changes in rainfall patterns, and substantial sea level rise.

These projected trends in average temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea levels are by themselves worrying, given the large implications for water resources, agriculture, forestry, coastal areas, and human health. However, an important portion of the impacts of climate change in the Philippines will materialize through changes in climate variability and extreme weather events, which are projected to include more intense rainfall events (and thus more floods and landslides), more hot spells, and stronger monsoon rainfall variability. In addition, there could be higher tropical cyclone peak wind and precipitation intensities, and changes in storm tracks. These increases in climate variability and weather extremes will have large consequences, as demonstrated by the heavy recent toll of some extreme weather events and related disasters (including typhoons and other severe storms; floods, flash floods, landslides, droughts, and forest fires), some of which have already been partly ascribed to climate change [Amadore, 2005a]. These risks particularly affect economic development and poverty reduction through agriculture and natural resources. For instance, the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño events, which caused a large drop in the volume of agricultural production, also contributed to the sharpest falls in GDP in the past decades [World Bank/NDCC 2004]. Several typhoons have caused damages of the order of 1% of GDP (e.g. in 1984, 1988 and 1990), and 4% of agricultural production (e.g. in 1990 and 1996; Amadore, 2005b).

##### Solution

The proposed project, which is envisaged as the first phase of a long-term adaptation program by the Government of the Philippines, is expected to have the following four building blocks: (i) Improve coordination of adaptation policy by DENR; (ii) Implement climate risk reduction in key productive sectors; (iii) Strengthen proactive disaster management within the NDCC; and (iv) Enhance provision of scientific information for climate risk management.

Expected benefits are: By addressing new climate risks in specific productive sectors of the economy, and particularly by addressing rising climate risks to ongoing development investments, the proposed project will primarily generate benefits by alleviating barriers to development caused by the effects of climate change. Specific benefits to be generated by the project include the following:
(i) Improved coordination of adaptation policy by the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) with other stakeholders resulting in a broader focus, which goes beyond the traditional environment and energy policies;
(ii) Through the implementation of climate risk management in key productive sectors, the Philippine economy would be more resilient to climate change effects in natural resources and agriculture sectors which are crucial to the country’s economic development and poverty alleviation;
(iii) Enhanced capacity of the National Disaster Coordinating Council to prepare for and contribute to climate risk management, particularly with respect to extreme weather events at the national and local levels ; and (iv) Availability of better scientific climate information products to a variety of end users in particular by the key agencies