Summary:
Adaptation aspects in major sectors like forestry, agriculture, water resources and health are presented in Nepal's National Communication of 2004. Adaptation measure to Climate Change could be approached by intensifying the conservation of drought resistant crop varieties by improving cropping practices to conserve water; and by promoting crop diversification. Several aspects of the vulnerability and impact analysis in agriculture sector can also be improved, for example, development of improved climate scenarios, development of more suitable crop models, and search for alternative analytical approaches.
Nepal is a small landlocked mountainous country located between the world's two most populous countries: China to the north and India to the east, west and south, with a total land area of 147,181 square kilometers. The elevation of the country increases from about 60 meters in the south to 8848 meters in the north at the peak of Mt. Everest. Nepal receives major portion of rainfall during summer monsoon from June to September. Nepal is one of the poorest countries in the world, with nearly 70 per cent of the population living on less than US$2 per day (MOE, 2010). Approximately 85 per cent of Nepalese depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, and agriculture is the largest contributor to Gross Domestic Product. The country also benefits from a large tourism sector.
A. Adaptation Needs and Priorities
Nepal’s current climate varies along with its topography, ranging from tropical to alpine conditions, and is shaped by the Himalayan mountain range as well as the South Asian monsoon. The country experiences four seasons: pre-monsoon from March to May; monsoon season from June to September; post-monsoon from October to November; and winter from December to February (MOE, 2010). Because of its geographic location and topographic variability (from plains of the Terai to the high peaks of the Himalayas), it is difficult to predict how climate change will unveil itself in Nepal. The challenge posed by these physical features is made more complex by a lack of sound scientific data. Like its neighbor Bhutan, Nepal has few weather stations and a shorter duration of reliable records in comparison to other countries (the upper Himalaya region is essentially a data white-spot). As a result, it is difficult to set a baseline and predict how basic climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation will change over time.
With these caveats in mind, the general conclusion based on Global Circulation Models as well as Regional Circulation Models is that average temperatures will increase over all of Nepal and that monsoon precipitation will increase. The pattern of increase will vary significantly across the country and local level predictions available now are not very reliable. Nepal’s recently prepared National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) notes that a recent study employing Global and Regional Circulation Models projects that mean annual temperatures in Nepal will increase by 1.4°C by 2030, 2.8°C by 2060, and 4.7°C by 2090 (MOE, 2010). Precipitation projections foresee no change in westerns areas of the country, but up to a 5 to 10 per cent increase in eastern Nepal during winter
months. In the summer months, precipitation is projected to increase for the entire country by 15 to 20 per cent (MOE, 2010).
This high level of uncertainly in and of itself is a strong reason for Nepal to act now to increase its adaptive capacity. As it faces many risks similar to those that need to be addressed by northern Indian states (Himachal for example) as well as Bhutan, there are also opportunities for regional cooperation. Common areas of concern include unpredictable monsoons, more extreme wet and dry spells, GLOFs, and more severe floods and droughts. Being a mountainous country, the risk of landslides and loss of top soil (especially from hill slopes) will also increase due to degradation of forests and faster surface runoff. Experiences from the recent past corroborate these predictions (NCVST, 2009b).
Nepal’s NAPA discusses the following vulnerabilities to climate change by priority sector (MOE, 2010):
- Agriculture and food security: Nepal’s subsistence farming economy is at considerable risk to changes in precipitation, rising temperatures, flooding and erratic monsoon rainfall;
- Water resources and energy: climate-related water stress directly impacts agricultural productivity, malnutrition, human health and
sanitation, and changes in river flow may directly impact micro-hydro projects in the hills and mountains;
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Climate-induced disasters: Nepal is currently exposed to a number of hydro-meteorological disasters, and this may be exacerbated in the
future with climate change;
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Forests and biodiversity: increased temperatures and rainfall variability may lead to shifts in agro-ecological zones;
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Public health: possible increase in vector-borne and water-borne infectious diseases, including an increased risk of malaria and kalaazar;
- Urban settlements and infrastructure: climate change is anticipated to impact infrastructure including roads, bridges, community and public buildings, and schools. Impacts are expected to be concentrated around urban water and energy resources, and may also affect human health.
B. National Level Policies and Strategic Documents
The Initial National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) completed by Nepal in 2004 set the context for its future adaptation efforts, highlighting its vulnerability and indicating the need for a comprehensive response plan. In 2008, it launched its NAPA development process, which was completed in 2010.
Nepal was one of the last countries to develop its NAPA, and as such has been able to learn lessons from processes in other countries. It has sought to establish a vertical linkage between the national-scale, top-down assessments of current and future climate risks, with bottom-up assessments from community members themselves—informed by local knowledge and geographical specificity. In particular, community level feedback were collected in the form of Local Adaptation Plans of Action (LAPAs), which will inform local and regional sector policies as well as the national level NAPA. Given Nepal’s geographic and ethnic diversity, such a grassroots approach appears to be a pre-requisite for ensuring not only sufficient ownership and engagement but also flow of resources from the center to the communities who are at the front line of climate change.
C. Current Adaptation Action
There are a moderate number of ongoing adaptation projects and programs in Nepal compared to other South Asian countries, including nationally focused activities as well as those involving countries from within and outside of the Asia region. These activities are primarily focused on the areas of water, policy formulation, and risk reduction, with certain initiatives addressing the need for improved meteorological information, as well as the fields of communication, agriculture and nature. Main funders in Nepal are the Asian Development Bank, European Commission, World Bank, the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and the Governments of Norway, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States Agency for International Development.
D. Proposed Adaptation Action
Nepal’s proposed adaptation actions, listed in Table 3, focus on the areas of water, agriculture, risk reduction, policy formulation, nature, infrastructure, health and urban areas. Given that the country’s NAPA was released in December 2010, the majority of these projects have not yet received funding. An exception is the Asian Development Bank funded project “Community Based Vulnerability Assessment, Risk Mapping, and Adaptation Planning,” which was designed to address NAPA priorities. However, certain ongoing adaptation projects address key objectives identified through the NAPA.
Publication
Islam, Faisal; Hove, Hilary; Parry, Jo-Ellen. (2011) “Review of Current and Planned Adaptation Action: South Asia.” Adaptation Patnership/International Institute for Sustainable Development, pp.119-136.
Additional References
Ministry of Environment (MOE, 2010). National Adaptation Programme of Action to Climate Change. Retrieved from
Nepal Climate Vulnerability Study Team [NCVST] (2009). Mining Climate Change Lessons from Signature Events. In Vulnerability
through the Eyes of the Vulnerable: Climate change induced uncertainties and Nepal’s development predicaments. Kathmandu: Institute for Social and
Environmental Transition-Nepal.
Review of Current and Planned Adaptation Action: South Asia Nepal. (n.d.). Local Adaptation Plan of Action. Retrieved from
http://www.napanepal.gov.np/Materials/Local%20Adaptation%20Plan%20of%20Action_discussion%20paper.pdf
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