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Assessing the cost of Adaptation to Climate Change
Summary:
Background
This is an evaluation of estimates of the costs of adaptation made by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2007 and by some preceding studies (UNFCCC, 2007; Stern, 2006; World Bank, 2006; Oxfam, 2007; UNDP, 2007). The costs have been used as the basis for discussion regarding the levels of investment needed for adaptation to climate change. They have been influential in the debate concerning funding for climate change and it is important, therefore, that such estimates of cost are as robust as possible. The purpose of this report is to assess these estimates and consider ways to improve them in the future.
The UNFCCC commissioned six studies which provided estimates of the cost of adaptation for the year 2030. In summary these cover:
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries. The agriculture estimate consists of three distinct cost items: extra capital investment at farm level, the need for better extension services at country level and the cost of additional global research (e.g. on new cultivars).
Water supply. The water estimates considers the effect of additional water demand and changes on the supply side. Investment decisions are made in anticipation of 2050 water needs.
Human health. The health estimates are the extra prevention costs for three health issues: malnutrition, malaria and diarrhoea. The health impacts are based on the Global Burden of Disease study.
Coastal zones. Coastal protection costs considers a limited set of adaptation options that are applied globally. Uniquely, the coastal estimate considers both adaptation costs and residual damages. For long-life defence infrastructure, investments are made in anticipation of sea-level rise in 2080.
Infrastructure. The infrastructure estimate adopts the World Bank methodology, using insurance data to determine the share of climate-sensitive investment, and applying a percentage increase on current infrastructural investment to suggest additional costs for climate-proofing new infrastructure.
Ecosystems. An indication of adaptation costs for ecosystems was derived from the costs of increasing protected areas to at least 10% of the land area of each nation or ecosystem, although it was not possible to split this into baseline costs of meeting current deficits and incremental adaptation.
The UNFCCC report concluded that total funding need for adaptation by 2030 could amount to $49 – 171 billion per annum globally, of which $27 – 66 billion would accrue in developing countries.
