ALM UNDP

Summary:

The following country profile is found in the Meister Consultants Group study: Floating Houses and Mosquito Nets: Emerging Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Around the World.

Summary

In December 2008, the German government passed a national adaptation strategy. This strategy is intended to be a framework for the development of adaptation measures on the national, regional and local level, as well as for adaptation measures from companies, associations and citizens. The strategy will be implemented in a step-by-step process. Important steps include the further improvement of the knowledge base, the start of a broad dialogue and communication process, and the development of a concrete action plan by March 2011. The German strategy describes 13 focus areas where regional and spatial planning and emergency management are defined as cross-cutting issues. Individual German states (Bundesländer) are also starting to prepare for the impacts of climate change, and some have developed their own adaptation strategies and plans (p. 30).

Country Profile

In Germany, temperatures are expected to continue to rise, but regional differences may vary by between 1.5 and 3.5°C (for the period from 2071 to 2100 as compared to the period from 1961 to 1990). There are expected to be fewer days of frost and more days with extreme heat. The frequency and intensity of heat waves are expected to rise, causing public health problems, especially in urban areas.

By the end of the decade, it is expected that rainfall during the summer will decrease on average by 30 percent. However, these changes will differ from region to region. These increases in temperature are expected to lead to increased evaporation. The south, southwest and northeast of Germany have the potential to be most affected by water scarcity. Furthermore, the frequency of extreme weather events is also expected to rise in Germany, posing serious risks to people and the economy.

The impacts of climate change differ between regions. According to the Federal Environmental Agency (UBA), the southwest of Germany (Upper Rhine Valley), the central parts of Eastern Germany, and the Alps are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.27 A big challenge for the Upper Rhine Valley will be heat waves, which could significantly burden the public health system. In the lowlands of northeastern Germany amounts of rainfall are expected to decrease, while in the Alps, glaciers will continue to melt and the snow cover is expected to decline.

Along the coast, sea level is predicted to rise by 30 cm. Large variability in the range of predictions means that a much greater sea level rise is also possible. In some coastal areas, an absolute rise of sea level could be further aggravated by an extension of the tides. The courses of the rivers are also increasingly threatened by flooding, especially in the lower reaches of the country.

These changes imply risks both for the health of the population and the economy. During the heat wave of 2003, there were 7,000 additional fatalities in Germany as compared to average summers. The Elbe flood of 2002 cost over 9.4 billion Euros. Other extreme weather events, like storms, have also caused significant damage. In 1999, hurricanes Lothar and Martin caused damages worth 14 billion euros.28 In Germany, climate changes posses risks to nearly every economic sector, including water, agriculture and forestry, public health, energy, transport and infrastructure, tourism (in the Alps and the low mountain ranges), biodiversity and environmental protection, and the insurance industry.

Source: Dr. Hans-Peter Meister, I. K., Martina Richwein, Wilson Rickerson, Chad Laurent. Additional contributors: Jeff Snell, Elisa Burchert, Florian Lux. (2009). Floating Houses and Mosquito Nets: Emerging Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Around the World. Boston: Meister Consultants Group. p. 30-32.