ALM UNDP

Rising 1500–2500 metres above sea level, East Africa’s relatively cool and breezy highlands have, until
recently, avoided the problems associated with malaria since malarial mosquitoes could not tolerate the
highlands’ long-term average temperatures of 18°C or lower. However, highland temperatures have been
rising in recent decades and epidemic malaria is emerging as a climate-related hazard. About 80% of
statistical variation in malaria incidence can be explained by rainfall and temperature and recent changes in
climate have lead to increased malaria prevalence. In 1997–98, average temperatures in Kenya’s highlands
were as much as four degrees higher than usual and the incidence of malaria increased 300% over the
baseline average for 1995-2002. Meanwhile in Tanzania and Uganda, malaria incidence in highland areas
increased by 146 and 256% respectively over the baseline.