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Disaster Risk Management
Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa
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Project details
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Implementing Agency:
ESAROImplementing Agency and Partnering Organizations:
Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), Ministry of Health (Uganda), National Institute for Medical Research (Tanzania), Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Application Centre, International Centre for Insect Physiology and Ecology, Community Health Support, Walter Reed Army Institute for Research (U.S.)Summary:
In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence increased by 146%, 256% and 300%, respectively, during the 1997/1998 epidemic.
Project Components:
In 2001, a malaria epidemic prediction model was developed by KEMRI that uses climatic factors to detect an epidemic 2-4 months before its occurrence, allowing sufficient time for intervention. The model has been tested and validated in parts of Kenya and Tanzania. This project will fine-tune the model, incorporate site-specific factors, and transfer it to end users in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, and eventually other countries in East Africa. It will accomplish this by:
- Taking into consideration the local terrain and the immune profile of the affected population, including mapping traditionally endemic areas where people have some level of resistance, and newly malarial zones where there is less resistance to malaria.
- Enhancing the capacity of policymakers and health officials to provide early warning for malaria outbreaks and intervene in an effective manner.
- Assessing the role of nonbiophysical factors in determining the incidence and control of the disease.
- Training district health care providers across the three countries to use the prediction model to anticipate and prepare for malaria outbreaks.
Expected Outputs:
If successful, the project will give local health systems a greater base of certainty on which to plan prevention and treatment. With more lead time, health officials can respond by taking preventive measures such as distributing mosquito nets, and draining or spraying mosquito breeding grounds. They also can have adequate staff and medical supplies on standby to deal with increased caseloads.
Contacts:
Contact: Project leader Dr. Andrew Githeko, KEMRI
Email: AGitheko@kisian.mimcom.net
Website: www.kemri.orgProject Status:
Under implementationPrimary Beneficiaries:
National health ministries, Local health planning authorities, Highland communities
GIZ Factsheet - Development of a Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Tunisian Agricultural Sector
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Project details
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Implementing Agency:
GTZImplementing Agency and Partnering Organizations:
Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources (MARH); General Directorate of Agricultural Studies and Development (DGEDA)Summary:
Adaptation to climate change: development of a national strategy for agriculture, ecosystems and water resources in Tunisia In April 2005, within the framework of Tunisian-German cooperation, GIZ was commissioned to manage the requisite analyses to enable more precise conclusions to be drawn about the impacts of climate change in Tunisia. The focal points were the agricultural sector, ecosystem vulnerability and water resources development.
Expected Outputs:
For the first time, the Tunisian ministries have a comprehensive report at their disposal which identifies the regional impacts of climate change. Key decision-makers in all sectors at risk as a result of climate change can refer to these findings and forecasts in order to adopt appropriate measures.
The adaptation strategy and action plan for the agricultural sector were coordinated and agreed with all relevant sectors and institutions. It became apparent that the climate problems cannot be resolved by the agricultural sector alone but require a coordinated inter-sectoral approach. The shared understanding of the problem makes it easier to undertake the adaptation work which is now required.
The National Adaptation Strategy contains detailed proposals and criteria for the authorities on adaptation to climate change and the specific measures which must now be implemented. As the next step, the findings should be extended to the health, coastal protection and tourism sectors as well. The work on the adaptation strategy also generated considerable interest among the Tunisian public. A number of newspapers, radio and TV stations followed the project work and reported on the conferences that took place. This did much to raise general awareness of climate change and triggered a lively public debate about its impacts in Tunisia. The research group‘s work and findings also attracted attention and interest beyond Tunisia‘s borders. In order to respond adequately to this interest, the report will be translated into English and Arabic and made available in the southern Mediterranean countries.
Contacts:
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
GmbH Dag-Hammarskjöld-Weg 1-5 65760, Eschborn, Germany
T: +49 6196 79-0
F: +49 6196 79-11 15
Email: GIZ - Contact
GIZ Factsheet - Adaptation to Climate Change in Mozambique: Early Warning and Education
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Project details
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Implementing Agency:
GTZImplementing Agency and Partnering Organizations:
Sofala province government, the committee for the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) and the National Disaster Management Institute (INGC)Summary:
Integrating adaptation to climate change within disaster risk management systems in the Búzi river catchment area and other regions of Southern Africa In 2001 the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH started a programme of reconstruction, which now forms part of the broader Programme for Rural Development of Mozambique - (PRODER).
Within this framework, the People- oriented inter-district early warning system for the catchment area of the Rio Búzi (SIDPABB) was developed as a pilot project.
Project Components:
Seven monitoring stations on the upper course of the Búzi and its affluents have been set up. Rainfall and the river level are measured daily using simple and robust equipment. These data are directly transmitted via a direct radio frequency to Búzi, where they are analysed. The District Administrator has ultimate authority to instruct the GRCs via radio about the necessary steps to be taken. He has since become an expert on the issue, and has taken the lead with regard to the integration of disaster management in the development plan of his district.
Contacts:
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
GmbH Dag-Hammarskjöld-Weg 1-5 65760, Eschborn, Germany
T: +49 6196 79-0
F: +49 6196 79-11 15
Email: GIZ - Contact
Reducing Climate Change-induced Risks and Vulnerabilities from Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Punakha-Wangdi and Chamkhar Valleys
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Project details
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Implementing Agency and Partnering Organizations:
Government of Bhutan: Department of Geology and Mines, Department of Disaster Management, Department of Energy, Gross National Happiness Commission, Dzongkhag (district level) administrationsSummary:
This project was identified by the National Adaptation Programme of Action of Bhutan as a national priority to address the adverse impacts of climate change. Its goal is to enhance adaptive capacity to climate change-induced disaster impacts in Bhutan. As a contribution to the achievement of this goal, the project objective is to 'reduce climate change-induced risks and vulnerabilities from glacial lake outbursts in the Punakha-Wangdi and Chamkhar Valleys.'
Project Components:
The project addresses urgent priorities from the recently concluded NAPA process in Bhutan. The project will integrate climate risk projections into existing DRM practices and implement corresponding capacity development measures at the national, district, and community levels. The project will demonstrate a practical approach to reduce GLOF risks from Thorthormi Glacier Lake, which is one of Bhutan’s most dangerous glacier lakes with a worst-case-scenario outburst projection as early as 2010.
The lessons learned in this project will facilitate replication of GLOF risk reduction in other high risk areas, both within and outside Bhutan. The project will also ensure that the existing EWS in the PW Valley, which is not currently equipped to handle the full extent of GLOF risks, is expanded to take sufficient account of this growing risk. Lessons learned from this initiative will enable up-scaling of EWS in other areas vulnerable to GLOFs.
Expected Outputs:
The project’s goal is to enhance adaptive capacity to prevent climate change-induced GLOF disasters in Bhutan and its objective is to reduce GLOF risks in the Punakha-Wangdi (PW) and Chamkhar Valleys.
The project is organized according to the following four outcomes and subsidiary outputs:
- Improved national, regional, and local capacities to prevent climate change-induced GLOF disasters in the PW and Chamkhar Valleys Institutionalized climate-resilient DRM legislation, policy frameworks, and guidelines. Strengthened capacities for climate risk planning at the district (dzongkhag) administrative levels. Information on climate hazards and GLOF vulnerabilities in Bhutan systematically captured, updated,and synthesized. Awareness raised in communities vulnerable to climate-related GLOF risks.
- Reduced risks of a GLOF from Thorthormi Lake through an artificial lake level management system Engineering and safety plans for risk reduction measures on Thorthormi Lake developed. Lowered Thorthormi Lake water levels. Water levels of Thorthormi Lake and status of artificial lowering system regularly monitored and maintained. Technical knowledge and lessons from the process of artificially lowering lake levels captured and documented for use in future projects.
- Reduced human and material losses in vulnerable communities in the PW Valley through GLOF early warnings Technical components for a GLOF EWS in PW Valley installed and operational. Established institutional arrangements to operate, test, and maintain the GLOF EWS. Raised awareness of communities in the PW Valley on operation of EWS. Raised awareness of safe GLOF evacuation areas in each vulnerable community in the PW Valley. Technical knowledge and lessons learned in the installation and operation of GLOF EWS captured and documented for use in future projects.
- Enhanced learning, evaluation, and adaptive management Project lessons captured and disseminated through the Adaptation Learning Mechanism. Project knowledge shared with other GLOF-prone countries.
Contacts:
UNDP Regional Technical Advisor
- Gernot Laganda
- Email: Gernot.Laganda@undp.org
UNDP Focal Point
- Ms. Anne Erica Larsen
- Energy, Environment & Disaster Management Unit
- United Nations Development Programme
- Samten Lam, Post Box 162, Thimphu
- Tel: +975 2 322424
Project Status:
Under ImplementationPrimary Beneficiaries:
Local communities in the affected river valleys
Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change
Submitted by andrea on Mon, 2009-07-27 23:46Summary:
Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change
UNFCCC Secretariat (with the service of: Stratus Consulting Inc.)
January, 2005
Summary
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires all parties to formulate and implement programs to facilitate adaptation to climate change.
Applying Climate Information for Adaptation Decision-Making: A Guidance and Resource Document
Submitted by andrea on Mon, 2009-07-27 23:42Summary:
Applying Climate Information for Adaptation Decision-Making: A Guidance and Resource Document
Xianfu Lu
National Communications Support Programme
Overview
This guidance document intends to provide countries with a practical tool on using climate information in their decision-making processes. A key concern frequently raised by practitioners is designing sound adaptation programmes under the uncertainties commonly associated with climate change. This guide addresses these issues of adaptation planning under uncertainty of observed and projected climate change.
Developing Socioeconomic Scenarios for Use in Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments
Submitted by andrea on Mon, 2009-07-27 21:44Summary:
Developing Socioeconomic Scenarios for Use in Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments
Malone, Elizabeth L., Joel B. Smith, Antoinette L. Brenkert, Brian Hurd, Richard H. Moss, and Daniel Bouille
UNDP, New York, US, 48pp
April 2004
Overview
This handbook provides a framework for developing integrated socio-economic scenarios that can function at the local, national, and regional and/or global levels. The handbook aims to improve the construction of socio-economic scenarios in two ways. First, it broadens the scope of factors to be included. Second, the handbook focuses on the local sectors that are most relevant for policy, agriculture and water resources.
Guidance on the Development of Regional Climate Scenarios for Vulnerability and Adaptation assessments
Submitted by andrea on Mon, 2009-07-27 21:36Summary:
Guidance on the Development of Regional Climate Scenarios for Application in Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments within the Framework of National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Xianfu Lu
2006
National Communications Support Programme
UNDP-UNEP-GEF New York, USA, 42 pp.
Overview
This document builds on existing material and focuses on providing practical guidance on the key technical issues in relation to climate scenario information within the context of preparing Second National Communications.
This document also underlines the vital importance of a planning/scoping exercise to define clearly the needs for climate scenario information, and also provides a list of freely accessible sources of models, tools, data and guidance materials.
Using a Climate Scenario Generator for Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessments
Submitted by andrea on Mon, 2009-07-27 21:29Summary:
Overview
This workbook on generating climate scenarios using MAGIC and SCENGEN is aimed to non-Annex I countries and it will provide the tools for construction of national and regional climate scenarios. The workbook also discusses many of the scientific and technical issues commonly encountered by national teams on climate during their work.
Workbook on generating high resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS
Submitted by andrea on Mon, 2009-07-27 21:19Summary:
Generating High Resolution Climate Change Scenarios Using PRECIS
Richard Jones, David Hassell, Debbie Hudson, Simon Wilson,Geoff Jenkins and John Mitchell
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Bracknell, UK
October 2003
Overview
This Workbook is part of a package, developed in collaboration with the Hadley Centre, that includes a portable Regional Climate Model and a Technical Manual. The ultimate objective of the Workbook is to describe the steps required to generate high-resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS, taking into account gaps in information and understanding.
