ALM UNDP

Summary:

Belize is located on the Central American mainland, forming part of the Yucatan Peninsula and lying between 15°45’and 18°30’north latitude, and 87°30’ and 89°15’ west longitude. It is bounded to the north by Mexico, to the west and south by Guatemala and to the east by the Caribbean Sea. The total land area is 22,960 sq. km. (8,867 square miles) of which 95% is located on the mainland and five per cent is distributed over more than 1,060 islands. Total national territory (including territorial sea) is 46,620 sq. km. (approximately 18,000 square miles).

It is a small Central American state with a long, low-lying coastline which are vulnerable to natural disasters through tropical cyclones and flooding. Three-quarters of its land is covered by forests that support fragile ecosystems. The country lies in the hurricane belt and, on average, is affected by a hurricane every three years (Belize 2002). These hurricanes have adversely affected the people and economy of Belize, as demonstrated by the damage to its agriculture sector in late 2007 and late 2010. Following the threat posed by Hurricane Mitch in October 1998, there has been a review of hurricane preparedness and procedures to mitigate the effects of natural disasters. The scenario of a major disaster such as Hurricane Mitch, and more recently hurricanes Keith and Iris, has served to sensitise the government and general public to climate change issues, mitigation, and especially adaptation.

The country’s agriculture sector generates 71 per cent of its foreign exchange earnings and employs about 29 per cent of its labor force. Key export crops include citrus, sugar, bananas and marine products (such as shrimp). Belize’s largest source of foreign exchange, however, is tourism—a sector of the economy that the government has designated as being a priority for further development (USDS, 2011).

Large sections of the coastline have an elevation of less than one metre to a distance of several kilometers inland. In the north, the land rises to an elevation of approximately 250 meters above sea level (asl) in the extreme west of the country. The central part of the country is dominated by the Maya Mountain/Mountain Pine Ridge massif, rising to 1,124m asl (3688 ft) at its highest point.

Northern Belize has a subtropical climate with an annual rainfall of 1,500 mm (60 inches). Southward, the climate becomes increasingly tropical and annual rainfall increases to 3,800 mm (150 inches). The climate is characterized by marked wet and dry seasons separated by a cool transitional period. The rainy season begins in the south in the middle of May and arrives in the north in mid June. It continues through to November, but most locations experience a drier period in August. Some 60% of annual precipitation occurs during this season, produced primarily by tropical systems including tropical cyclones. The cool transition period occurs from November through February. Rainfall declines and approximately 12 cold fronts cross the country during this period. The true dry season is from February to April and is produced by strong anticyclones in the Atlantic that generate a persistent stable south-easterly airflow across the country.

A. Adaptation Needs and Priorities
Recent climatic trends in Belize include minor temperature increases and statistically insignificant rainfall reduction over the last 50 years. In the future, temperatures are projected to continue to increase by 1.5° to 2°C by 2090. Projected changes in rainfall patterns are highly uncertain, but the median values of all scenarios show decreasing trends. An additional concern for Belize is sea level rise. According to different climate models, sea levels could rise by 0.18 to 0.56 meters until 2090 (UNDP 2009).

These projected changes have encouraged the government of Belize to better understand its vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change. Vulnerability assessments elaborated as part of the country’s preparation of a Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have focused on coastal zones, fisheries and aquaculture, tourism, agriculture and health. Each assessment paper identifies a set of adaptation measures for the respective sector. In the water sector, Belize has also established a National Adaptation Strategy. It recommends a number of adaptation measures involving awareness raising, capacity building, changes in institutional structures and collaboration between stakeholders (BEST, 2009).

B. National Level Policies and Strategic Documents
A handful of Belize’s national policies address the issue of climate change and climate change adaptation. Its “Medium Term Development Strategy” for 2010 to 2013, for example, acknowledges climate change as a relevant part of Belize’s development context. Within the strategy, climate change is mentioned in the context of disaster preparedness, but “adaptation” is not referenced (Belize, 2010). A second document, the “Government of Belize Policy on Adaptation to Global Climate Change,” recommends the mainstreaming of adaptation into all sectors and government ministry plans. The policy seems to date from around 2003, and it is unclear to what extent the policy has been implemented as it is not mentioned in subsequent documents. In a more recent exercise, a consultancy elaborated a “National Adaptation Strategy to Address Climate Change in the Water Sector” (BEST, 2009) as part of the “Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change” (MACC) project implemented by the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC), a regional organization with headquarters in Belize. It presents five key adaptation actions for this sector involving integrated water resource management, institution and capacity building, transboundary collaboration and awareness and education.

The National Meteorological Service (NMS) is the focal point for climate change affairs in Belize. As such, the NMS has been responsible for coordinating and submitting National Communications to UNFCCC. An interdepartmental National Climate Change Committee has also been established; however, it does not appear to be very active. Other key adaptation actors in Belize include the CCCCC and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), which have supported the elaboration of key documents.

Belize is also a member of the Central American Integration System (SICA), the institutional framework for the integration of Central American states, and of the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD), a committee which brings together environmental ministries of SICA member states. Under the auspices of SICA and CCAD, a regional climate change strategy has recently been developed (CCAD and SICA, 2010). The strategy summarizes climate information and sectoral vulnerabilities and proposes six strategic areas, of which one is themed “Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and change, and risk management.” Nine strategic objectives with over 150 measures relating to disaster risk reduction, agriculture and food security, forest ecosystems and biodiversity, water, health, coastal-marine systems, tourism, indigenous people and public infrastructure are mentioned under this theme. Other strategic areas are: mitigation; capacity building; education, awareness raising, communication and participation; technology transfer; and international negotiations and management.

C. Current Adaptation Action
Belize has a low number of ongoing adaptation initiatives compared to other countries in Central America and Mexico. Most of these projects are focused on research and capacity building. The majority support the government’s capacity to facilitate adaptation to climate change, while also looking at concerns in key sectors such as coastal zones and agriculture. Projects addressing needs related to freshwater resources, tourism, gender and disaster risk management are also being implemented. The most important efforts have been undertaken in the framework of what is today the CCCCC. No concrete implementation of adaptation measures has been observed so far.

D. Proposed Adaptation Action
Belize is proposed to be part of three regional programs announced by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the United States Department of State (USDS). Additional projects in preparation have not been identified.

E. Assessment
As a small state with a tiny population, Belize has benefited greatly of being part of the CCCCC. It has provided the basis for in-depth vulnerability assessments in a number of key sectors and provides a space for collaboration with many other small states that face similar issues in the context of climate change. However, besides research and capacity building, no concrete current adaptation projects have been identified. Furthermore, awareness of gradual changes in climate still seems to be shadowed by attention to extreme events. This is evidenced, for instance, in the medium term development strategy, which mentions climate change only in the context of disaster preparedness. There thus appears to be a need to put the already ample knowledge about impacts and vulnerabilities, especially in sectors such as coastal and marine resources and agriculture, into practice.

References:
Keller, Echeverría, Parry (2011) “Review of Current and Planned Adaptation Action: Central America and Mexico.” Adaptation Partnership / International Institute for Sustainable Development.

Belize (2002). First National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Retrieved from http://unfccc.int/essential_background/library/items/3599.php?rec=j&priref=3437#beg

Belize (2010). Belize Medium Term Development Strategy 2010–2013. Building Resilience against Social, Economic and Physical Vulnerabilities.

Belize (forthcoming). Second National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Belize Enterprise for Sustainable Technology [BEST] (2009). National Adaptation Strategy to Address Climate Change in the Water Sector in Belize–Strategy and Action Plan.

Comisión Centroamericana de Ambiente y Desarrollo [CCAD] and Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana [SICA] (2010). Estrategia Regional de Cambio Climático. Documento Ejecutivo.

United Nations Development Programme [UNDP] (2009). UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles: Belize.
United States Department of State [USDS] (2011). Background Note: Belize. Last updated May 2, 2011. Retrieved from http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/1955.htm.